It’s a feeble wind that doesn’t blow some ill for everybody, and the worldwide economy has been sustaining gale force lately. Even the tech sector, despite its arctic-grade insulation, is feeling the effects. Fat balance sheets, good cash flows, decent margins, and broad customer bases notwithstanding, the large tech vendors don’t have the wherewithal to keep out the cold.

So, it’s time for our inner fear and deep-seated greed to have a heart-to-heart talk and come quickly to the conclusion that this season will be like no other in recent times. In the forecasting biz, we call it a “market discontinuity.” That is, a break from the past. We have been whistling our way past the memorial park quarter after quarter, but this time there’s no getting around it: accounts will have to be reckoned.

Thanksgiving weekend in 2000, Jeff Weizen, the then-CEO of Gateway, announced that sales on Black Friday failed miserably to meet expectations. The year had already been wobbly; the second quarter had been down. But the third quarter went back to its usual pattern of robust growth. So, nobody paid much attention to the blight on the economic leaves. But that quick frost at the open of the holiday season changed everybody’s mind. At the time, I was forecasting PCs at IDC, and we were four days away from publishing the latest revision. We had U.S. consumer growth for the fourth quarter pegged at 25% year on year. Although a little down from most of the previous eight quarters, that growth rate now seemed impossible. So, being bold, I pulled the consumer forecast down by 13 points to 12%, and we went with that. In the event, it was actually minus 3%, 15 points lower than the drastically revised estimate. We failed to appreciate the discontinuity.

The events of 2000 are likely to prove mild, the merest fog-deposited hoar frost, compared to the incipient ice age we’re facing today. So, it would be wise to strap on the snow shoes and prepare.

All indications are that consumers will shop cautiously this holiday. Likely to take a hit are the higher price points. Shoppers will come in and browse, but they’ll probably leave with smaller packages. Products like expensive flat-panel TVs, fancy notebooks, gaming desktops, and high-end phones will likely
remain on the shelves in unprecedented numbers. Best positioned will be items under $200.

In that spirit, I shopped around a bit myself for stocking stuffers on places like Amazon, Best Buy, and Apple.com, looking for items with tags like $99, $149, and $199, just to see what was out there.

Inexpensive Holiday Suggestions

The following paragraphs list a few, but by no means all, of the possibilities for gifts under $200. Tongue-in-cheek marketing-huckster spiel totally optional.

Garmin Nuvi 200

You probably don’t have a navigation system yet, and Garmin, one of the industry leaders, is offering the Nuvi 200 for $159.99. It features a 3.5” QVGA display, pocketable size, and preloaded U.S. maps (others available). It uses satellite GPS technology for positioning, a USB connection for loading data, and a touchscreen interface. It also has a photo viewer, international clock, currency converter, and English-metric converter. The system weighs 5.2 ounces. You won’t break the bank or lose your way with this baby!

CH Flightstick Pro

For the gaming inclined, why not the Flightstick Pro from CH Products? For $109.95, this 3-axis, 12-button game controller puts you in charge of the pixilated skies. It features a trigger, three fire buttons, 22 programmable functions via the included software, left- or right-handed operation, and works with new as well as older versions of both Windows and Mac OS. No, wait! One day after I first looked at this item, the price on Amazon.com dropped to $71.24. Supplies while they last!

Eikon Digital Privacy Manager

Protect your data from prying eyes and make easier your secure Website access simultaneously! The Eikon Digital Privacy Manager from UPEK is a USB-based fingerprint reader that can be retrofitted to any reasonably new system. Log onto your computer with the swipe of a finger, switch user accounts easily and securely. The password bank remembers your online user names and passwords and can be invoked with a swipe when you’re on one of your registered pages. Oh, and the application launcher software lets you use your fingerprint to open up your favorite programs, too. Listing for $59.95, you can get it for $42.19 on Amazon.com.

Apple iPod nano

Although the shuffle is cheaper, you can get a pretty beefy nano and still limbo under the magic price point. The 8GB version goes for $149 and the 16GB is $199. The nano comes in nine colors. Nuff said.

Skullcandy Hesh Headphones

And while you’re in the Apple Store, for your loved one or yourself, try picking up a pair of Skullcandy’s Hesh Headphones. You can enjoy the powerful bass, full midrange, and crisp highs of this $49.95 item, which comes in a tricked-out tigerish orange and white motif. The headphones feature in-line volume control, 100-18,000Hz frequency response, and a gold-plated plug. Travel bag included!

Logitech QuickCam for Notebooks

Always positioned well for the peripherals market, Logitech offer the QuickCam for Notebooks at $39.99. Good enough to chat with while on the go, the QuickCam features integrated mic, activity light (letting you know when you’re “live”), and VGA resolution (640 x 480). For the more performance-minded, the QuickCam Vision Pro has Zeiss optics, premium autofocus, and HD resolution (1600 x 1200). And it still sashays under the bar at $129.99!

Panasonic Lumix DMC-FS3S

Although Panasonic cameras easily float up to $799.95, the company does have a number of models under $200. For $179.95, you can pick up the Lumix DMC-FS3S, an 8.1 megapixel compact digital camera with a 33mm lens, 3x optical zoom, and 2.5” LCD viewer. The Leica lens has a field of focus between 20” and infinity, and an auto macro feature lets you shoot from a mere 2” away! Built-in flash, rechargeable battery, and a host of hardware and software features mean anyone can take expert photos with this pocket-sized quarter-pounder! Steve Martin, watch out!

Microsoft Zune

Remember the Zune? Apple made fun of it when it first came out, but take another look. It’s a lot sleeker than before and sports better colors. For $149.99 you can have the 8GB flash memory version, which can store up to 2,000 songs, 25,000 pictures, or 25 hours of video. The player features an FM tuner, WiFi, a 1.8” 320 x 240 screen, and software for tagging songs you like for later purchase as you hear them on the radio. Comes with preloaded games, and wirelessly syncs with other nearby Zuners. The thing is tiny, weighs only 1.7 ounces, and plays most standard audio, video, and still picture formats. Earbuds included!

Let the Festivities Begin

So, if you’re a shopper, there are plenty of fun things to choose from. If you’re a vendor, make sure you have lots of low-priced stock on hand. And good luck to you both!

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